The Polish presidential election of 2025 will be remembered as a turning point, not only for the narrow victory of the national-conservative candidate Karol Nawrocki over the pro-European liberal Rafał Trzaskowski, but also for the seismic shift in the youth vote, which was massively captured by the right. This is a scenario that should be of concern to all European left-wingers, as it reveals the flaws of a liberal alternation that is incapable of responding to social anger and the need for emancipation among young people.
A high-tension election, reflecting a fractured society
The campaign has exposed a Poland split in two. On one side, those who aspire to greater rights, equality and European integration. On the other, a nationalist bloc, committed to sovereignty, rejecting immigration and defending “traditional values”. Despite the scandals, the PiS has managed to mobilise its base, particularly in rural areas and small towns, by playing on the fear of change and mistrust of Brussels.
Tusk coalition fatigue, breeding ground for Conservative comeback
The changeover in 2023 had raised hopes. But the Tusk coalition, with its heterogeneous composition and split between centre-right and centre-left, has failed to live up to popular expectations. Social and economic reforms have been slow in coming, cohabitation with a hostile president has paralysed action, and democratic fatigue has spread to a section of the electorate. This disappointment has opened up a boulevard for the PiS, which has managed to present itself as the “anti-system” alternative despite eight years of authoritarian rule.
The polarisation trap and the role of the far right
Nawrocki’s victory also depended on the massive transfer of votes from the far right, which had accumulated more than 20% in the first round. The PiS used fear as an instrument, increasing its xenophobic and anti-Ukrainian rhetoric, and benefiting from the support of the Trumpist American right. In a polarised society, the social and progressive left was unable to impose its themes, or to mobilise sufficient support in the face of the conservative machine.
Young people, a conservative surprise and a symptom of democratic malaise
But the shock of this election was the youth vote. The 18-29 age group, more mobilised than ever, voted massively for the right and the far right. Among young people, the protest vote reached 60%, including 40% for the far right and 35% for the libertarian nationalist party Konfederacja. The PiS and its allies won almost 53% of the vote in this age group, relegating the radical left to 19%, despite a dynamic campaign by Adrian Zandberg1.
This swing can be explained by a rejection of the system, disillusionment with traditional politics and the failure of the left to offer a credible alternative. The vote for Konfederacja, in particular, was motivated by his ultraliberal promises and his anti-tax rhetoric, which were widely relayed on TikTok and social networks. Social anger, job insecurity, the housing crisis and rising inequality found no outlet on the left. The result: young people voted against their own class interests, trapped by the cultural hegemony of the right and the lack of an alternative.
What are the implications for the left?
When young people, who are supposed to be the driving force behind change, turn en masse to the right and extreme right, it’s a sign of deep democratic malaise. It’s no longer enough to oppose reaction or bet on Europe. We need to rebuild a popular, social and environmentalist project, capable of speaking to young people, responding to their material anxieties and offering them a vision of emancipation.
The defeat of the Polish Liberals is not just the defeat of one side, but the defeat of a strategy that is content with management and European integration without responding to social anger. As long as the left, in Poland as elsewhere, remains marginalised or reduced to a supporting role, the terrain will continue to be occupied by nationalists, reactionaries and hatemongers.
The left needs to hear this message, in Poland as elsewhere, if it is to become once again a force of hope for the new generation.
