The European Union economy is entering 2026 in a phase of paradoxical stabilisation, marked by inflation under control at 1.9% and modest growth of 0.3%. While the spectre of recession is receding for EU countries thanks to resilient consumption, the industrial landscape remains fragmented by challenges of digital sovereignty and a return to strict budgetary discipline within member states.
To gain perspective on these changes and track market developments, you can explore our previous analyses in the economic press review section of the Europe à Contre‑Courant media outlet.
Inflation and monetary policy: the bet on stability
The return of inflation below the 2% target marks a turning point for the European Central Bank, which is stabilising its monetary stance at the start of the year.
– Eurozone : The financial daily Les Échos reports that the ECB kept its key interest rate at 2.0% on 30 January. This pause is justified by annual inflation falling to 1.9% in January, signalling the end of the inflationary spiral.
– France : Le Figaro Économie highlights that this decline in prices is giving households some breathing space, with French growth of 1.1% exceeding the European average. This momentum is driven by robust domestic consumption, supported by lower food prices.
Employment figures and wage pressure
Despite a global economic slowdown, the European labour market is showing resilience, which is nevertheless generating new pressures on production costs.
– Global indicators : Unemployment in the EU remains at a historically low level of 5.9% according to the latest data from January.
– Poland : The newspaper Rzeczpospolita notes that Poland remains a preferred destination for investment despite a 12% increase in wages over the past year. This labour shortage, reported by 70% of European companies, is forcing employers to continuously raise wages.
Industrial sovereignty and risk of closures
Europe is attempting to strengthen its technology and automotive industries to prevent site closures in the face of increasingly aggressive global competition.
– Tech sector : The website L’Écho reports on the “EU Open Source” summit held on 30 January in Brussels, aimed at securing the continent’s software independence from American giants.
– Automotive sector : In Hungary, the newspaper Világgazdaság warns of a slowdown in demand for electric batteries, prompting the government to request an emergency plan from Brussels to prevent factory closures.
Public finances: the return of budgetary orthodoxy
After years of flexibility, the rules of the Stability Pact are back at the centre of the political game, distinguishing the “good pupils” from the countries that remain heavily indebted.
– Budgetary discipline : The newspaper Lidové noviny reports that the Czech Republic and Austria are managing to keep their deficits below 3%, thereby strengthening their credit ratings.
– Energy transition : Romania is consolidating its economic position by becoming a net exporter of gas to the EU thanks to its Black Sea deposits, contributing to the overall decline in energy prices on the continent.
Macroeconomic news briefs (week of 26 January to 1 February 2026)
– Global GDP : Eurostat confirms growth of +0.3% for the last quarter of 2025 across the EU as a whole.
– Trade balance : The eurozone’s trade surplus is improving, supported by lower fossil fuel imports.
– Confidence : The consumer confidence index rose slightly, reaching -16.1 points in January.
Sources:
- Eurostat: “GDP up by 0.3% in both the euro area and the EU – Preliminary flash estimate Q4 2025” (30/01/2026) – ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/web/products-euro-indicators/w/2-30012026-ap
- BNP Paribas – Economic Research: “ActuEco: The scenario and forecasts for 2026” (26/01/2026) – economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-GB/ActuEco-26-January-2026
- Vie Publique: “Eurozone: ECB maintains interest rates at 2.0%” (30/01/2026) – www.vie-publique.fr/en-bref/301395-bce-taux-directeur-janvier-2026
- L’Écho (Belgium): “Open Source Summit 2026: the EU wants its independence” (31/01/2026) – www.lecho.be/economie-politique/europe/open-source
- Les Échos: “Economic situation: European growth more resilient than expected” (30/01/2026) – www.lesechos.fr/monde/europe/conjoncture-economique
